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我的工作是行銷,我也樂在其中,但物理是我最初的摯愛。求學時有個很棒的老師燃起我對物理的熱情,但當年我沒這麼多白髮。他告訴我物理很酷,能教導我們很多關於周遭世界的事。接下來的幾分鐘裡,我要試著讓各位相信,物理能教導我們一些關於行銷的事。
我先做個小調查,有人在大學裡修過行銷嗎?有人在大學裡修過物理嗎?喔,還不錯。那中學的時候呢?好,看來還不少。那麼,希望這能讓你們想起一些快樂、或令人有點煩惱的往事。
好的,物理和行銷,我們先從一些簡單的開始。來看牛頓定律,「力等於質量乘以加速度」。土耳其航空也許該多學學這個定律,然後再推出這個行銷活動。(笑聲)但如果我們很快地重組這個方程式,可以得出加速度等於力除以質量,也就是說,對質量較大的物體而言,要改變它的方向需要更大的力,對品牌來說也是一樣;愈是重量級的品牌,包袱也愈重,要改變它的行銷定位需要更大的力量,這就是為什麼Arthur Andersen選擇創立Accenture管理諮詢公司,而不是費力要大家相信,Andersen這塊招牌也可代表除了會計以外的東西,這也是為什麼Hoover公司發現,要說服大家Hoover不只賣真空吸塵器很困難。還有像聯合利華和P & G這些公司,選擇保有獨立品牌,Oreo、品客和多芬也是一樣,而不是經營一個大型的統一品牌。所以物理定律說,物體質量愈大,就需要愈大的力量才能改變物體的行進方向,行銷也是如此,品牌愈大,要重新定位就愈難。所以不妨考慮經營一組品牌,或為新事業建立新的品牌。
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以下為系統擷取之英文原文
So I work in marketing, which I love, but my first passion was physics, a passion brought to me by a wonderful school teacher, when I had a little less gray hair. So he taught me that physics is cool because it teaches us so much about the world around us. And I'm going to spend the next few minutes trying to convince you that physics can teach us something about marketing.
So quick show of hands -- who studied some marketing in university? Who studied some physics in university? Ooh, pretty good. And at school? Okay, lots of you. So, hopefully this will bring back some happy, or possibly some slightly disturbing memories.
So, physics and marketing: We'll start with something very simple, Newton's Law: "The force equals mass times acceleration." This is something that perhaps Turkish Airlines should have studied a bit more carefully before they ran this campaign. (Laughter) But if we rearrange this formula quickly, we can get to acceleration equals force over mass, which means that for a larger particle, a larger mass, it requires more force to change it's direction. It's the same with brands. The more massive a brand, the more baggage it has, the more force is needed to change its positioning. And that's one of the reasons why Arthur Andersen chose to launch Accenture rather than try to persuade the world that Andersen's could stand for something other than accountancy. It explains why Hoover found it very difficult to persuade the world that it was more than vacuum cleaners, and why companies like Unilever and P&G keep brands separate, like Oreo and Pringles and Dove rather than having one giant parent brand. So the physics is that the bigger the mass of an object the more force is needed to change its direction. The marketing is, the bigger a brand, the more difficult it is to reposition it. So think about a portfolio of brands or maybe new brands for new ventures.
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有人記得海森堡測不準原理嗎?這個稍微專業些,原理是,根據定義,我們不可能準確測量粒子的狀態,例如位置和動量,因為根據定義,測量行為本身就會使粒子改變,意思就是說,假設有一個基本粒子,你拿光照它,光的光子有動量,會和粒子發生碰撞,所以你不知道你觀察之前它所處的位置,測量的同時,測量的動作會改變它,觀察的行為會改變它,這和行銷的道理一樣,觀察消費者的動作會改變消費者的行為。假設有一群媽媽,在焦點團體裡討論她們的小孩有多棒,幾乎不會有人買很多垃圾食物,但麥當勞每年卻賣出千百萬個漢堡。假設人們在他人陪同下於超市購物,他們往推車裡塞滿新鮮綠色蔬菜和水果,但平常買東西時可不像這樣。想想看,會在意見調查中宣稱自己經常上網搜尋色情圖片、影片的人數非常少,然而,我們知道,在Google搜尋榜上,第一名就是色情片。幸運的是,科學--抱歉--是行銷,變得越來越簡單,幸運的是,藉由更好的銷售點追蹤系統,更多的數位媒體消費,你可以測量消費者的實際行為,而不只是聽他們說他們做了什麼。物理學上說,你永遠不可能確實、精準地測量一個粒子,因為觀察這個行為本身就會改變它。就行銷而言-應用在行銷上則是試著測量消費者的實際行為,而不是只聽他們說他們會怎麼做,或預期他們會怎麼做。
接著,我們來看科學方法,這是物理學乃至所有科學的公理,就是你無法靠觀察來證明一項假說,只能反證它。這個意思是,你可以收集很多資料來支持一項假說或定位,這能夠強化它,卻無法完全證明它,但只要一個反面的資料,就能打倒你的理論。我們舉個例子--托勒密有很多資料支持他的理論-行星繞著地球運轉,但哥白尼一個有力的觀察結果就把他的理論打得落花流水,行銷上的情形也是相似的。你可以在一個品牌上投入很多時間經營,但只要有一個和品牌定位相反的事件,就足以擊潰消費者的信心。以英國石油(BP)為例,他們在多年內花了幾百萬英磅營造一個愛護環境的品牌形象,然後發生了這麼一個小意外(墨西哥灣油災)。再看看Toyota,長久以來被尊為最值得信賴的汽車,然後發生了一次大規模的回收事件。還有老虎伍茲,他向來是最完美的品牌大使,然後,你們都知道發生了什麼事。(笑聲)所以物理學這麼說,你無法證明一個假說,但要反證它卻很容易,任何假說都不可靠。在行銷上就是,不管你在品牌經營上投注多少心力,只要一時處理不好,就會讓數十年的努力白費。所以,小心避免這類讓你的品牌受到傷害的狀況發生。
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Now, who remembers Heisenberg's uncertainty principle? Getting a little more technical now. So this says that it's impossible, by definition, to measure exactly the state, i.e., the position, and the momentum of a particle, because the act of measuring it, by definition, changes it. So to explain that -- if you've got an elementary particle and you shine a light on it, then the photon of light has momentum, which knocks the particle, so you don't know where it was before you looked at it. By measuring it, the act of measurement changes it. The act of observation changes it. It's the same in marketing. So with the act of observing consumers, changes their behavior. Think about the group of moms who are talking about their wonderful children in a focus group, and almost none of them buy lots of junk food. And yet, McDonald's sells hundreds of millions of burgers every year. Think about the people who are on accompanied shops in supermarkets, who stuff their trolleys full of fresh green vegetables and fruit, but don't shop like that any other day. And if you think about the number of people who claim in surveys to regularly look for porn on the Web, it's very few. Yet, at Google, we know it's the number-one searched-for category. So luckily, the science -- no, sorry -- the marketing is getting easier. Luckily, with now better point-of-sale tracking, more digital media consumption, you can measure more what consumers actually do, rather than what they say they do. So the physics is, you can never accurately and exactly measure a particle, because the observation changes it. The marketing is -- the message for marketing is -- that try to measure what consumers actually do, rather than what they say they'll do or anticipate they'll do.
So next, the scientific method, an axiom of physics, of all science -- says you cannot prove a hypothesis through observation. You can only disprove it. What this means is you can gather more and more data around a hypothesis or a positioning, and it will strengthen it, but it will not conclusively prove it. And only one contrary data point can blow your theory out of the water. So if we take an example -- Ptolemy had dozens of data points to support his theory that the planets would rotate around the Earth. It only took one robust observation from Copernicus to blow that idea out of the water. And there are parallels for marketing. You can invest for a long time in a brand, but a single contrary observation of that positioning will destroy consumers' belief. Take BP. They spent millions of pounds over many years building up its credentials as an environmentally friendly brand, but then one little accident. Think about Toyota. It was, for a long time, revered as the most reliable of cars, and then they had the big recall incident. And Tiger Woods, for a long time, the perfect brand ambassador. Well, you know the story. (Laughter) So the physics is that you cannot prove a hypothesis, but it's easy to disprove it. Any hypothesis is shaky. And the marketing is that not matter how much you've invested in your brand, one bad week can undermine decades of good work. So be really careful to try and avoid the screw-ups that can undermine your brand.
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最後,來談談不太好懂的「熵」,熱力學第二定律。定律說,「熵」,也就是系統的混亂程度會一直增加,這在行銷上也同樣適用。回顧20年前,一個訊息幾乎可以由一個行銷經理來掌握,而這個訊息幾乎就能定義一個品牌。但現在這個世界中已經不再是這樣了。你可以有一個很有力的品牌形象或訊息,把它發送出去,就像英國保守黨前一陣子張貼競選海報的作法一樣,但之後你就控制不了了。現在有各式各樣製造和發送意見的數位工具,每個消費者都能使用,要控制訊息已經不可能了,你的品牌開始失焦,(笑聲)變得越來越混亂,(笑聲)你沒辦法控制。(笑聲)我親自看過他的演說,他表現得不錯。雖然這或許會讓行銷人員感到不安,但未嘗不是好事。品牌能量的散佈能讓你的品牌更貼近一般人,更深入人心,這使能量的分散成為一個民主化的力量,最終對你的品牌有益。所以,物理學教我們的是,熵會一直增加,這是基本原理,應用在行銷上,就是品牌能量會變得更分散,既然沒辦法對抗它,那就擁抱它,找到與它共處的方法。
結論是,我的老師Vutter先生告訴我,物理很酷,希望各位都同意,物理可以教我們一些特別的事,甚至是行銷世界裡的事。
謝謝。
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And lastly, to the slightly obscure world of entropy, the second law of thermodynamics. This says that entropy, which is a measure of the disorder of a system, will always increase. The same is true of marketing. If we go back 20 years, the one message pretty much controlled by one marketing manager could pretty much define a brand. But where we are today, things have changed. You can get a strong brand image or a message and put it out it out there like the Conservative Party did earlier this year with their election poster. But then you lose control of it. With the kind of digital comment creation and distribution tools that are available now to every consumer, it's impossible to control where it goes. Your brand starts being dispersed. (Laughter) It gets more chaotic. (Laughter) It's out of your control. (Laughter) I actually saw him speak. He did a good job. But while this may be unsettling for marketers, it's actually a good thing. This distribution of brand energy gets your brand closer to the people, more in with the people. It makes this distribution of energy a democratizing force, which is ultimately good for your brand. So, the lesson from physics is that entropy will always increase; it's a fundamental law. The message for marketing is that your brand is more dispersed. You can't fight it, so embrace it and find a way to work with it.
So to close, my teacher, Mr. Vutter, told me that physics is cool, and hopefully, I've convinced you that physics can teach all of us, even in the world of marketing, something special. Thank you.