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傳統經濟成長方式在非洲並非那麼適用。過去60年非洲獲得上兆美元的經濟發展援助,如今的個人平均所得卻比1970年代還低,援助並沒有太大作用。布雷頓伍茲體系-國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行-對此的回應是推行自由貿易,而非經濟援助。然而歷史紀錄顯示,沒有實質證據證明自由貿易促進非洲經濟成長,最新的殺手鐧是小額貸款。我們似乎太過沉浸於這個浪漫的想法,以為所有非洲貧農都是創業家。(笑聲)
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Traditional prescriptions for growth in Africa are not working very well. After one trillion dollars in African development-related aid in the last 60 years, real per capita income today is lower than it was in the 1970s. Aid is not doing too well. In response, the Bretton Woods institutions -- the IMF and the World Bank -- pushed for free trade not aid, yet the historical record shows little empirical evidence that free trade leads to economic growth. The newly prescribed silver bullet is microcredit. We seem to be fixated on this romanticized idea that every poor peasant in Africa is an entrepreneur. (Laughter)
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然而在非洲40多個國家的工作和旅遊經歷讓我明白,大多數人民只想找份工作。我的解決方案是:不考慮微型企業,讓我們投資建構泛非洲商業巨頭,仿效蘇丹企業家Mo Ibrahim。1998年,Mo在非洲逆向操作,成立Celtel國際公司,將它打造成電信運營商。到了2004年,Celtel已擁有2400萬用戶,遍及非洲14個國家。Mo的創業模式或許優於「人人都是創業家」模式,它阻礙了有效的融合方式和知識共享。或許非洲目前所處階段的經濟成長並非藉由眾多個體和小型企業之競爭取得,考慮兩個不同方案:一、你貸給500位蕉農每人200美元,讓他們將多餘的香蕉進行乾燥處理,使當地市場收入增加15%。二、你資助一位精明的企業家10萬美元,幫助她建造一座工廠,使500位蕉農的收入增加40%,並創造50個就業機會。我們選擇第二個方案,資助一名26歲的肯亞企業家Eric Muthomi,設立名叫Stawi的農產品加工廠,生產以香蕉為原料的無麩質麵粉和嬰兒食品。Stawi憑藉規模經濟效益,採用現代化生產過程,不僅替老闆創造了價值,也替持有股份的員工創造了價值。
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Yet my work and travel in 40-plus countries across Africa have taught me that most people want jobs instead. My solution: Forget micro-entrepreneurs. Let's invest in building pan-African titans like Sudanese businessman Mo Ibrahim. Mo took a contrarian bet on Africa when he founded Celtel International in '98 and built it into a mobile cellular provider with 24 million subscribers across 14 African countries by 2004. The Mo model might be better than the everyman entrepreneur model, which prevents an effective means of diffusion and knowledge-sharing. Perhaps we are not at a stage in Africa where many actors and small enterprises leads to growth through competition. Consider these two alternative scenarios. One: You loan 200 dollars to each of 500 banana farmers allowing them to dry their surplus bananas and fetch 15 percent more revenue at the local market. Or two: You give 100,000 dollars to one savvy entrepreneur and help her set up a factory that yields 40 percent additional income to all 500 banana farmers and creates 50 additional jobs. We invested in the second scenario, and backed 26-year-old Kenyan entrepreneur Eric Muthomi to set up an agro-processing factory called Stawi to produce gluten-free banana-based flour and baby food. Stawi is leveraging economies of scale and using modern manufacturing processes to create value for not only its owners but its workers, who have an ownership in the business.
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我們的夢想是幫助Eric Muthomi這樣的人成為另一個Mo Ibrahim,這需要技術、資金、地方與全球範圍的合作,以及非凡的毅力。但為何選擇泛非洲?1884年柏林會議中對非洲的爭奪-老實說沒人跟我們非洲人商量過-導致非洲分崩離析,產生許多人口不多的獨立國:賴比瑞亞,400萬人口;維德角,50萬人口。泛非洲有10億人口,涵蓋55個國家,存在各種貿易壁壘和其它障礙。但歐洲人替非洲劃分勢力範圍前,我們的祖先已在這片大陸上進行貿易,泛非洲的機會大於挑戰,因此我們將Stawi的市場從肯亞擴展至阿爾及利亞、奈及利亞、迦納及任何會購買我們食物的地方。我們希望幫助解決食品安全問題,使農民擁有自主權、創造就業機會、發展當地經濟,希望在這個過程中致富。這並非最吸引人的方法,也許這不會讓人產生同樣美好的感覺,相較於藉由kiva.org提供100美元貸款讓人買頭山羊,也許支持少數影響力深遠的企業家構建泛非洲規模的大型企業有助於改變這個情況。前人為政治自由所做的奮鬥,如果沒有經濟自由,將變得徒勞無功。我們希望對爭取經濟自由有所貢獻,藉由打造世界級企業、創造本土財富、提供我們迫切需要的就業機會,希望有助於達成這些目標,非洲將會崛起,謝謝。(掌聲)
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Our dream is to take an Eric Muthomi and try to help him become a Mo Ibrahim, which requires skill, financing, local and global partnerships, and extraordinary perseverance. But why pan-African? The scramble for Africa during the Berlin Conference of 1884 -- where, quite frankly, we Africans were not exactly consulted -- (Laughter) (Applause) -- resulted in massive fragmentation and many sovereign states with small populations: Liberia, four million; Cape Verde, 500,000. Pan-Africa gives you one billion people, granted across 55 countries with trade barriers and other impediments,but our ancestors traded across the continent before Europeans drew lines around us. The pan-African opportunities outweigh the challenges, and that's why we're expanding Stawi's markets from just Kenya to Algeria, Nigeria, Ghana, and anywhere else that will buy our food. We hope to help solve food security, empower farmers, create jobs, develop the local economy, and we hope to become rich in the process. While it's not the sexiest approach, and maybe it doesn't achieve the same feel-good as giving a woman 100 dollars to buy a goat on kiva.org, perhaps supporting fewer, higher-impact entrepreneurs to build massive businesses that scale pan-Africa can help change this. The political freedom for which our forebearers fought is meaningless without economic freedom. We hope to aid this fight for economic freedom by building world-class businesses, creating indigenous wealth, providing jobs that we so desperately need, and hopefully helping achieve this. Africa shall rise. Thank you.
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Tom Rielly:Sangu,這是相當具有震撼力的觀點。你說小額貸款與常態性投資及逐漸增加的常態性投資有天壤之別,你認為小額貸款是否能佔一席之地?
Sangu Delle:我認為可以。小額貸款一向是優良的創新方式,可擴展金字塔底層群眾致富的機會,但非洲目前面臨的問題,如同振興飽受戰爭蹂躪的歐洲所制定的歐洲復興計劃,並非捐贈羊群就能解決。我們需要的不僅是小額貸款,不僅是200美元的援助,我們需要建立大規模企業,我們需要就業機會。
TR:好極了,十分感謝。
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Tom Rielly: So Sangu, of course, this is strong rhetoric. You're making 100 percent contrast between microcredit and regular investment and growing regular investment. Do you think there is a role for microcredit at all?
Sangu Delle: I think there is a role. Microcredit has been a great, innovative way to expand financial access to the bottom of the pyramid. But for the problems we face in Africa, when we are looking at the Marshall Plan to revitalize war-torn Europe, it was not full of donations of sheep. We need more than just microcredit. We need more than just give 200 dollars. We need to build big businesses, and we need jobs.
TR: Very good. Thank you so much.