本課程要求學習者對總體經濟學的認識達到學士中級水平。如果你還沒有達到這水平，請先閱讀本學科的總體經濟學中級教材（這並非輕浮之言。風險頗高：如果你不熟悉總體經濟學，本課程對你而言將只是一系列的方法論和模型，而不是嘗試了解波動。）

本課程沒有教科書，你可以從以下書目中取材：

• Blanchard, O.和 S. Fischer,《總體經濟學講義》(Lectures on Macroeconomics), 麻省理工學院出版社，1989版. （下文簡稱「Blanchard 和 Fischer」）[涵蓋大部分基礎知識，但該書已老化]。
• Obstfeld, M.和K. Rogoff,《國際經濟學基礎》(Foundations of International Economics)，麻省理工學院出版社，1996. (在下文中簡稱“Obstfeld 和 Rogoff”)[內容更注重開放式經濟]。
• Ljungqvist, L. 和 T. Sargent, 《總體經濟學遞迴理論》(Recursive Macroeconomic Theory)，麻省理工學院出版社， 2000 [更多著眼於技術]
• Woodford, M.《利息與價格》(Interest and Prices)，普林斯頓出版社, 2002版. （更注重名義剛性和貨幣政策的作用）（可以在www.princeton.edu/~woodford/macro20c.pdf上下載）
• 總體經濟學研究領域發展迅速。以下兩篇調查,可能對提供經濟學發展縱向史有所幫助.
• Blanchard, O., 〈何為Fisher 和 Wicksell 所不知而為我們所知的總體經濟學知識？〉("What Do We Know About Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell Did Not?")《經濟學季刊》(QJE：Quarterly Journal of Economics)，2000月11月, 115:4, 1375-1410.
• Woodford, M., 〈20世紀總體經濟學的革新與發展〉("Revolution and Evolution in Twentieth-Century Macroeconomics)，即將出現於 P. Gifford所編輯的《21世紀思維前沿》(Frontiers of the Mind in the Twenty-First Century)，哈佛大學出版社. (可以在 www.princeton.edu/~woodford/macro20c.pdf上下載)

這門課程圍繞就九個主題/部分展開。針對每一個主題，我將給出一些基本閱讀資料，以及一些展示深層次應用或擴展的學術論文。

粗體字表示需要閱讀。

Bold denotes required reading.

共變數定態、趨勢/週期分解、衝擊和繁衍機制、Wold表示法、自回歸移動平均模型（ARMAs），金融風險度量（VARs）、結構向量自回歸 （SVARs）、衝擊反應、GDP成分共動現象、實際工資、利率和產出的相關性、產出與貨幣的相關性、週期、衰退和經濟蕭條。非線性。

• Blanchard和 Fischer，第一章
• " Stock, J. 和Watson, M.〈美國總體經濟時間序列中的商業周期波動〉("Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series,") 於J. Taylor 和 M. Woodford編輯《總體經濟學手冊》(Handbook of Macroeconomics) 第一章，第1A冊, North Holland, 1999
• " Christiano L. 和T. Fitzgerald〈商業周期：仍舊是一個謎。〉("The Business Cycle: It's Still a Puzzle")《經濟觀察》芝加哥聯邦儲蓄銀行, 1998-4, 56-83 (可以在：http://faculty.econ.nwu.edu/faculty/christiano/research/ep98/ep4q98a.pdf 上下載)
• " Abraham, K.和 J. Haltiwanger〈實際工資和商業周期〉("Real Wages and the Business Cycle,")，《經濟文獻期刊》(JEL)， 1995年9月, 期號33-3, 1215-1264
• Christiano, L.,Eichenbaum M.，和C. Evans，〈貨幣政策的衝擊效應：資本流動的實証〉("The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds,")，《經濟學和統計學評論》(REStat)，1996年2月, 78-1, 16-34

提出最優化問題。跨期選擇，衝擊，不確定性。一階條件。模型解答。數學方法。數值函數。對數線性化。特例與其他捷徑。集中經濟與分散經濟的等勢。分散經濟中的消費問題。

• Blanchard 和Fischer, 第2章和第6章-2
• Obstfeld 和Rogoff， 第1章和第2章
• Ljungquist 和Sargent，第2章和第3章
• Campbell J., 《監測機制：隨即增長模型分析法》(Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model)，《貨幣經濟學期刊》(JME)， 33, 1994年6月, 463-506

自由兌換，貨幣與定價者。壟斷競爭中自耕農定價模式。價格高於邊際成本的作用，加成標價。預定價格。貨幣對產出與福利的影響。收入對定價的作用。實際工資行為。重觀科技震盪和其他震盪的作用。指數化。選擇基準價格單位的宏觀含義.。貨幣政策問題。時間一致性。

• Blanchard, O., 〈貨幣為何影響產出的調查報告。〉("Why Does Money Affect Output? A Survey,") 於 B. Friedman 和 F. Hahn編輯《貨幣經濟學手冊》(Handbook of Monetary Economics)，North Holland, 1990, 779-835
• Blanchard和 Fischer, 章節8-1, 11-4
• Woodford, M., 章節3-1 ，〈名義剛性的最優化模式。一個基本粘性價格模型〉，("Optimizing Models with Nominal Rigidities. A Basic Sticky-Price Model")

價格決定的變動。Fischer-Taylor-Calvo模型。協調問題。現代菲力浦曲線。通貨膨脹慣性？現代IS-LM 模型，現代AS-AD模型。

• Blanchard 和Fischer, 章節8-2, 8-3
• " Woodford, M. , 章節3-2 〈含名義剛性的最優化模型。含定價變動的通貨膨脹動態〉("Optimizing Models with Nominal Rigidities. Inflation Dynamics with Staggered Price Setting.)
• King, R., 〈新IS-LM 模式：語言，邏輯和極限〉("The New IS-LM model: Language, Logic, and Limits,")，《經濟學季刊》(Economic Quarterly)，列治文聯邦儲備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)，86-3, 2000年夏季刊, 45-103
• Blanchard, O., 〈產出，股票市場和利率〉("Output, The Stock Market, and Interest Rates,")，《美國經濟評論》(AER)，1981年3月, 71-1, 132-143.
• Dornbusch, R., 〈期望與匯率動態〉 ("Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,")，《政治經濟學雜誌》(JPE)，1976年11月, 84, 1161-1176.
• Tobin, J. 〈凱恩斯的蕭條時期模型〉("Keynesian Models of Recession and Depression")，《美國經濟評論》(AER)，65-2, 1975年5月, 195-202

通貨膨脹目標。利率規則。流動陷阱。財政擴大的弊端。

• Woodford, M., 章節4-1, 4-2〈貨幣政策分析的新Wicksellian架構〉，("A Neo-Wicksellian Framework for the Analysis of Monetary policy")
• Clarida, R., J. Gali, 和 M. Gertler, 〈貨幣政策科學：新凱恩斯主義觀點〉("The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective") NBER W7147，1999五月。
• Krugman, P. 〈它又回來了：日本的經濟衰退和流動陷阱的重現〉("It is Back: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap,")，Brookings經濟活動論文集(BPEA：Brookings papers on economic activity)，1998-2, 137-201
• Giavazzi, F., 和 M. Pagano,〈財政政策改變的非凱恩斯主義效應：國際現象和瑞典經驗〉("Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience")，美國國家經濟研究局（NBER） W5332, 1996年10月

It is essential that you be familiar with macroeconomics at the intermediate undergraduate level. If you have not done so yet, read an intermediate macroeconomic text (This statement is not pro forma. If you are not familiar with macroeconomics, the risk is high that you will perceive the course as a series of methods and models, not as an attempt to understand fluctuations)

There are no textbooks for the course. However, I shall use material from:

• Blanchard, O. and S. Fischer, Lectures on Macroeconomics, MIT Press 1989. (Blanchard and Fischer in what follows) [covers most bases, but is aging]
• Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff, Foundations of International Economics, MIT Press 1996. (Obstfeld and Rogoff in what follows) [focuses more on open economy issues]
• Ljungqvist, L. and T. Sargent, Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, MIT Press 2000 [focuses more on techniques]
• Woodford, M. Interest and Prices, mimeo Princeton, 2002. [focuses more on nominal rigidities, and the role of monetary policy]. Available at www.princeton.edu/~woodford/
• Macroeconomics is a rapidly changing field. To get a sense of the geography, you might find it useful to read two recent surveys:
• Blanchard, O., "What Do We Know About Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell Did Not?" QJE, November 2000, 115:4, 1375-1410.
• Woodford, M., "Revolution and Evolution in Twentieth-Century Macroeconomics," forthcoming in P. Gifford, ed., Frontiers of the Mind in the Twenty-First Century, Harvard University Press. (Available at www.princeton.edu/~woodford/macro20c.pdf)

The course is organized around nine topics/sections. For each topic, I have included basic readings, as well as a few papers showing further applications or extensions.

Bold text denotes required reading.

Covariance stationarity. Trends/cycles decompositions. Shocks and propagation mechanisms. Wold representation. ARMAs, VARs, SVARS. Impulse responses. Co-movements of GDP components. Correlations between real wages, interest rates, and output. The correlations of output and money. Cycles, slumps, and depressions. Non linearities?

• Blanchard and Fischer, Chapter 1
• Stock, J. and Watson, M., "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," Chapter 1, Volume 1A, Handbook of Macroeconomics, J. Taylor and M. Woodford eds, North Holland, 1999
• Christiano L. and T. Fitzgerald, "The Business Cycle: It's Still a Puzzle", Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1998-4, 56-83 (available at http://faculty.econ.nwu.edu/faculty/christiano/research/ep98/ep4q98a.pdf )
• Abraham, K. and J. Haltiwanger, "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," JEL, September 1995, Volume 33-3, 1215-1264
• Christiano, L., Eichenbaum M., and C. Evans, "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," REStat, February 1996, 78-1, 16-34

Setting up the optimization problem. Intertemporal choice, shocks, uncertainty. The first order conditions. Solving the model. Numerically. Value functions. Log linearization. Special cases and other short cuts. Equivalence between centralized and decentralized economies. The consumption problem in the decentralized economy.

• Blanchard and Fischer, Chapters 2 and 6-2
• Obstfeld and Rogoff, Chapters 1 and 2
• Ljungquist and Sargent, Chapters 2 and 3
• Campbell J., Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model, JME, 33, June 1994, 463-506

Why the extension? Movements in employment/unemployment. Interpreting the first order conditions. Solving the model numerically, and by log linearization. Special case: log and full depreciation. Evidence on labor supply elasticity. Evidence on high frequency technological shocks. Solow residuals and their interpretation. Alternative models of innovation--driven booms.

• Prescott, E. C., "Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Fall 1986, 9-22
• Blanchard and Fischer, Chapter 7
• King, R. and S. Rebelo, "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," Chapter 14, Volume 1B, Handbook of Macroeconomics, J. Taylor and M. Woodford eds, North Holland, 927-1007
• Basu, S. and Fernald, J., "Why is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER W7940, October 2000
• Jorgenson, D. and K. Stiroh, "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," BPEA, 2000-1, 125-235
• Shleifer, A., "Implementation Cycles," JPE, 94-6, December 1986, 1163-1190

Costs of adjustment for investment. Investment, consumption, and interest rates in the decentralized economy. The role of the term structure of interest rates. The stock market and investment. The effects of shocks on output, investment, the stock market, and the term structure. The open economy version. Shocks, investment, saving, and movements in the current account.

• Blanchard and Fischer, Chapters 2-4, 6-3
• Kraay, Aart, and Jaume Ventura, "Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries", QJE, 2000-4, 1137-1166

Why introduce two goods? The pitfalls of one-good models. Capital/consumption goods. Tradable/non tradable goods. Domestic/foreign goods.
The consumer problem with two goods. Intratemporal and intertemporal first order conditions. Closing the model if tradables/non tradables. The Balassa-Samuelson effect. The transfer problem. Effects of technological shocks on relative prices, and on the current account.

• Obstfeld and Rogoff, Chapter 4
• Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff, "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account", Chapter 34, Volume 3, Handbook of International Economics, G. Grossman and K. Rogoff eds, 1731-1799

Decentralized exchange and the use of money. Cash-in-advance models. Money in the utility function. The effects of money growth on capital accumulation. Dynamics of hyperinflation. The Cagan model. The budget deficit and money growth.

• Blanchard and Fischer, Chapter 4, sections 4.3 to 4.7; and Chapter 10, section 10.2
• Dornbusch, R., Sturzenegger, F., and H. Wolf, "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1990-2, 1-84

Decentralized exchange, money, and price setters. A yeoman farmer model of price setting under monopolistic competition. The role of price above marginal cost, markups. Predetermined prices. The effects of money on output and welfare. Role of wage versus price setting. The behavior of real wages. Revisiting the effects of technological and other shocks. Indexation. Macro-implications of the choice of numeraire. The monetary policy problem. Time consistency.

• Blanchard, O., "Why Does Money Affect Output? A Survey," in B. Friedman and F. Hahn eds, Handbook of Monetary Economics, North Holland, 1990, 779-835
• Blanchard and Fischer, Chapters 8-1, 11-4
• Woodford, M., Chapter 3-1 ("Optimizing Models with Nominal Rigidities. A Basic Sticky-Price Model")

Staggering of price decisions. Fischer-Taylor-Calvo models. Coordination problems. The "modern Phillips curve." Inflation inertia? The "modern IS-LM model", the "modern AS-AD model".

• Blanchard and Fischer, Chapter 8-2, 8-3
• Woodford, M. , Chapter 3-2 ("Optimizing Models with Nominal Rigidities. Inflation Dynamics with Staggered Price Setting.)
• King, R., "The New IS-LM model: Language, Logic, and Limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 86-3, Summer 2000, 45-103
• Blanchard, O., "Output, The Stock Market, and Interest Rates," AER, March 1981, 71-1, 132-143.
• Dornbusch, R., "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," JPE, December 1976, 84, 1161-1176.
• Tobin, J. "Keynesian Models of Recession and Depression", AER, 65-2, May 1975, 195-202

Inflation targeting. Interest rate rules. The Liquidity Trap. Perverse effects of fiscal expansions.

• Woodford, M., Chapter 4-1, 4-2 ("A Neo-Wicksellian Framework for the Analysis of Monetary policy")
• Clarida, R., J. Gali, and M. Gertler, "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER W7147, May 1999
• Krugman, P. "It is Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," BPEA, 1998-2, 137-201
• Giavazzi, F., and M. Pagano, "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER W5332, October 1996