這門溝通密集的課程，要求完成兩篇論文，占總成績的35％。第一篇論文是5頁長的文章。需要使用在14.02章節中學到的總體經濟學工具（包括模型、方程式和圖表）。題目必須以當前的事件為基礎。第一篇論文占期末成績的10％，第3節課是交論文的最後期限。第二篇論文長15頁左右，題目在後面的課程大綱中有描述。第二篇論文的草稿或提綱在第8節課交上來。分數根據論文提綱（占期末成績的10％）和論文（占期末成績的15％）來定。第二篇論文的終稿在第9節課交上來。教學大綱的最後列出了有關論文的更詳細的資料。習題集占期末成績的20％，期中和期末測驗各一次，期中測驗占總成績的15％，期末測驗占總成績的30％。

這門課程的教材是戴維•羅默的《高級總體經濟學》，第二版（紐約︰McGraw Hill 出版社，2001年）。詳細的課程大綱列出了其它的相關閱讀資料，包括期刊文章和其它書中的選讀文章，在教學大綱的最後還列出了論文的一些其它資源。

新古典成長理論

羅默（2001），第一章。

羅伯特•索洛，〈技術變革和總生產函數〉,《經濟學和統計學評論》，39 (1957): 312-320。

曼昆、羅默和David N. Weil，〈經濟成長的經驗主義貢獻〉,《經濟學季刊》，107 (May 1992): 407-437.

羅默（2001），第3.8-3.9節。

羅默、Paul M，1990，〈內生技術變革〉，《政治經濟學期刊》，98 (October, Part 2): S71-S102.

羅默（2001），第3.2-3.6節。

Dixit, Avinish，《經濟理論的最適化》，牛津大學出版社，1990年。（有關動態最適化和最大化理論的章節）。

Dorfman, Robert，〈最適控制理論的一個經濟解釋〉，《美國經濟評論》，(December 1969): 817-31。

布蘭查德、史丹尼•費希爾，《總體經濟學講座》，麻省理工學院出版社，1989, 2.1-2.2節。

Ramsey, F.P，〈儲蓄的數學理論〉，《經濟期刊》，38 (December 1928): 543-559。

Barro, Robert J，〈政府債券是淨財產嗎？〉，《政治經濟學期刊》，82 (November/December 1974): 1095-1117。

布蘭查德、Olivier J.，史丹尼•費希爾，《總體經濟學講座》，麻省理工學院出版社，1989, 第2、3章。

Chirinko, Robert S.和Huntley Schaller，〈經濟固定投資和「泡沫」︰日本的例子〉，《美國經濟評論》，91, 3 (2001): 663-680。

Jorgenson, Dale和Robert Hall，〈稅收政策與投資行為〉，《美國經濟評論》，(June 1967)。

Summers, Lawrence，〈稅收和公司投資︰q理論法〉，《Brookings關於經濟活動的論文》(1981)。

Blinder, Alan和Louis J. Maccini，〈清查存貨︰存貨近期研究的重要評估〉，《經濟展望期刊》，5 (1991): 73-96。

Maccini, Louis J., Bartholomew Moore和 Huntley Schaller，《利率、學習和存貨投資》，麻省理工學院研究論文，(2003): 03-04。

Ramey, Valerie A.和 Kenneth D. West， 〈存貨〉，《總體經濟學手冊》1B卷第13 章， John B. Taylor, Micheal Woodford和Elsevier編輯，1999年。

布蘭查德、Olivier，〈巴西的債務和經常帳戶赤字〉，《金融政策和世界資本市場︰拉丁美洲國家的問題》，Pedro Aspe Armella等編輯，芝加哥大學出版社，1983年。

Fischer, Stanley和Jacob Frankel，〈投資、兩部門模型、負債貿易和資本品〉，《國際經濟學期刊》，2 (August 1972): 211-233。

Svensson, Lars E.O，〈石油價格、福利和貿易平衡〉，《經濟學季刊》，99, 4 (November 1984): 649-672。

Chang, Yongsung, Joao Gomes和Frank Schorfheide，〈透過行動來學習︰一種傳播機制〉，《美國經濟評論》，92, 5 (2002): 1498-1521。

羅默（2001）第4章。

這篇論文要求使用課程14.02中的工具來分析當前的公共政策問題，要求長5頁，兩倍行距（標明頁碼），註明參考書目。必須表現出對課程14.02中概念和模型的理解，以及把這些應用到實際問題上的能力。透過在緊貼模型、圖表和（或）方程式的基礎上進行書面分析來表現對模型的了解。論文的題目為︰日本經濟為什麼在1990年初衰退？為什麼日本經濟今天依然不景氣？（如果你想寫不同的題目，必須得到助教的書面許可。）

這篇論文要求是長15頁左右的研究論文，兩倍行距（標明頁碼），註明參考書目。論文要表現出你對該學科的理解和你的英文寫作能力。提綱（或者一個草稿更好）要在第8節課時交上來。你可以根據助教對提綱的回饋，來完成終稿。分數根據論文提綱（占期末成績的10％）和論文（占期末成績的15％）來定。

和助教討論論文的時候必須帶上你的論文提綱，如果第二份草稿在第9節課前要交上來的話，論文的第一份草稿在第8節課後不久就要寫好。遲交的論文會得到大幅降分的處罰，所以你按時上交論文是值得的，而不是再用一個星期來修改。

論文要求對兩個國家的經濟條件加以比較，一個是你所居住的國家，或者是你父母的國家，或者你有其它強烈感情的國家，另外所選的國家要和這個國家形成鮮明的對照，可以和導師討論所選擇的國家，可以描述分析這兩個國家在20世紀後半葉的經濟成長，論文的目的是使用在課程14.06中學到的理論來解釋兩個國家質和量的表現。比較兩個國家的異同可以提供足夠的興趣動力來使用我們的理論加以解釋。

正如任何優秀的論文一樣，這篇論文需要有開頭、中間和結尾。開頭要清楚闡明論文的題目和你打算要做什麼。在完成論文其它部分之後再重新寫一遍開頭，以確保符合論文的內容，並為論文的讀者展示一個很好的案例。尤其開頭要解釋清楚你在分析中使用的理論。文章的中間部分要包括你對兩個國家質和量表現的的描述以及你對它們的分析。如有需要，這一部分可以包括一些圖表和數據，以說明你在解釋什麼以及你如何解釋它們。這是論文中最長和最充實的部分。文章的結尾要總結你的論點，陳述你的結論，並從你的分析中，得出你認為正確的含義。

在時間壓力下寫研究論文的一個主要問題是剽竊。你要不惜任何代價避免剽竊。如果你懷疑你是否越過可接受的行為的界限，那你就太接近剽竊的邊緣了。省去可疑的段落，從剽竊的邊緣上抽身而退。為論文中所有引用的資料詳細地註明出處。可以引用資料，但是在引用的時候一定要清晰地註明出處。

除教學大綱提到的資料外，以下兩本書可能有用。

Chang, Ha-Joon，《在歷史展望中展開階梯式發展的戰略》，倫敦︰ Anthem Press, 2002。

Chang, Ha-Joon，《在歷史展望中展開階梯式發展的戰略》，倫敦︰ Anthem Press, 2002。

Penn World Tables上有很多國家各種各樣的數據。網址： http://datacentre2.chass.utoronto.ca/pwt/ or http://www.bized.ac.uk/dataserv/pennhome.htm.

每篇論文都有以下10個問題，答案可以記分，比方說，採用5分製。在50分的基礎上這些分數的和會產生一個總分。如果你願意，每個問題可以採用更小或更大的分數段，目的是為了記錄訊息，避免使論文評分者做出毫無意義偏見評分。我希望幾乎所有的論文在前五個問題上都可以得到高分，論文的差別在問題6－10中體現出來。

1．論文看起來是否像一篇正確的論文（有題目、20頁、參考書目等等）？
2．是否用英語寫（與生硬地翻譯外來短語相比）？
3．論文是否有一個開頭、中間和結尾？
4．論文是否合理使用了索洛模型（不必完全正確）？
5．論文是否合理使用了其它成長理論（不必完全正確）？
6．論文中是否有相關數據資料？
7．兩個國家之間是否做了很清晰的對比？
8．論文中的細節是否有助於論點的提出（與只是增加篇幅相對比）？
9．隨著論文的繼續，論點是否隨而進之和（或者）累積？
10．文章是否具有說服力？

This course is a communications intensive subject, and there are two papers required. These will count for total of 35% of the grade. The first paper will be an essay of 5 pages. It should draw on the tools of macroeconomics (including models, equations, and graphs) you acquired in 14.02. The topic will be based on current events. The first paper will be worth 10% of the final grade. The deadline is by lecture no. 3. The second paper will be an essay of about 15 pages. The topic is described later in the course outline. A rough draft or an outline of the second paper is due by lecture no. 8. Credit will be given for both the outline (10% of the final grade) and the paper (15% of the final grade). The final version of the second paper is due by lecture no. 9. More details about the paper can be found at the end of the syllabus. Problem sets will count for 20% of the final grade. There will also be a midterm and final examination. The midterm will count for 15% of the grade and the final for 30% of the grade.

The text for the course is David Romer, Advanced Macroeconomics, Second Edition (New York: McGraw Hill, 2001). The detailed course outline lists other readings, which will include journal articles and selections from other books. A few other resources for the paper are listed at the end of the syllabus.

Neoclassical Growth Theory

Romer (2001), Chapter 1.

Solow, Robert M. "Technical Change and the Aggregated Production Function." Review of Economics and Statistics 39 (1957): 312-320.

Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer, and David N. Weil. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth." Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (May 1992): 407-437.

Romer (2001), Chapters 3.8-3.9.

Romer, Paul M. 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change." Journal of Political Economy 98 (October, Part 2): S71-S102.

Romer (2001), Chapters 3.2-3.6.

Dixit, Avinish. Optimization in Economic Theory. Oxford: University Press, 1990. (Chapter on dynamic optimization and the maximum principle).

Dorfman, Robert. "An Economic Interpretation of Optimal Control Theory." American Economic Review (December 1969): 817-31.

Blanchard, Olivier J., and Stanley Fischer. Lectures on Macroeconomics. MIT Press, 1989, Chapter 2.1-2.2.

Ramsey, F. P. "A Mathematical Theory of Saving." Economic Journal 38 (December 1928): 543-559.

Barro, Robert J. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?" Journal of Political Economy 82 (November/December 1974): 1095-1117.

Blanchard, Olivier J., and Stanley Fischer. Lectures on Macroeconomics. MIT Press, 1989, Chapter 2.3.

Chirinko, Robert S., and Huntley Schaller. "Business Fixed Investment and 'Bubbles': The Japanese Case." The American Economic Review 91, 3 (2001): 663-680.

Jorgenson, Dale, and Robert Hall. "Tax Policy and Investment Behavior." American Economic Review (June 1967).

Summers, Lawrence. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1981).

Blinder, Alan, and Louis J. Maccini. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories." A Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5 (1991): 73-96.

Maccini, Louis J., Bartholomew Moore, and Huntley Schaller. "The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment." MIT Working Paper (2003): 03-04.

Ramey, Valerie A., and Kenneth D. West. "Inventories." Chap. 13 in Handbook of Macroeconomics. Vol. 1B. Edited by John B. Taylor, Micheal Woodford, and Elsevier. 1999.

Blanchard, Olivier. "Debt and the Current Account Deficit in Brazil." In Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries. Edited by Pedro Aspe Armella et al. University of Chicago Press, 1983.

Fischer, Stanley, and Jacob Frankel. "Investment, the Two-Sector Model, and Trade In Debt and Capital Goods." Journal of International Economics 2 (August 1972): 211-233.

Svensson, Lars E.O. "Oil Prices, Welfare, and the Trade Balance." Quarterly Journal of Economics 99, 4 (November 1984): 649-672.

Chang, Yongsung, Joao Gomes, and Frank Schorfheide. "Learning by Doing as a Propagation Mechanism." American Economic Review 92, 5 (2002): 1498-1521.

Romer (2001), Chapter 4.

This paper should be a paper that uses the tools of 14.02 to analyze a current public policy issue. It should be about 5 pages long, double-spaced (on numbered pages), with a bibliography of works consulted. It should demonstrate an understanding of concepts and models from 14.02 and an ability to apply these to an issue in the real world. Knowledge of the models should be demonstrated by a use of written analysis closely based on a model, graphs, and/or equations. The topic of the paper is: why did Japan's economy slump in the early 1990s and why is Japan in a recession today? (If you wish to write on a different topic, you must receive written permission from your TA.)

This paper should be a research paper that is about 15 pages long, double-spaced (on numbered pages), with a bibliography of works consulted. It should demonstrate both your understanding of the subject and your ability to write in English. An outline (or, even better, a rough draft) is due by lecture no. 8. The outline also will be the basis on which you can get feedback from a TA for the final version. Credit will be given for both the outline (10% of the final grade) and the paper (15% of the final grade).

You should bring your outline with you when you discuss your paper with a TA. A first draft of the paper also should be written soon after lecture no. 8, if a second draft is to be turned in by lecture no. 9. Late papers will be penalized on a steep sliding scale that makes it worth your while to submit the paper on time rather than trying to wait a week to improve it.

The paper should be a comparison of economic conditions in two countries. One country could be the country you live in, or from which your parents came, or with which you have other strong attachments. The other country should be chosen to provide a good contrast with this one. Feel free to discuss the choice of country with your instructors. You can describe and analyze economic growth in the two countries in the last half of the 20th century. The aim of the paper should be to use the theories learned in 14.06 to explain the qualitative and quantitative performance of the two countries. Comparing and contrasting two countries should provide enough movements of interest for our theories to explain.

Like any good paper, this one should have a beginning, a middle, and an end. The beginning should state clearly the topic of the paper and what you are planning to do. It should be rewritten after the rest of the paper is finished to make sure it fits the paper as written and presents a good case for someone to read the paper. In particular, the beginning should explain what theories you are employing in your analysis. The middle of the paper should contain your description of qualitative and quantitative performance of the two countries and your analysis of them. This part can contain diagrams and data as needed to show what you are explaining or how you are explaining it. It is the longest and most substantial part of the paper. The end of the paper should summarize your argument, state your conclusions, and draw any implications of your analysis that you think warranted.

Plagiarism is a major problem when writing research papers under time pressure. You should avoid plagiarism at all costs. If you are in doubt about whether you are over the line of acceptable behavior, you are too close to the edge. Omit the questionable passage and draw back from the edge. Provide full citations for all sources you consult in your work. Feel free to quote from them, but indicate clearly when you are quoting.

The following two books may be useful in addition to the material on the syllabus.

Chang, Ha-Joon. Kicking Away the Ladder-Development Strategy in Historical Perspective. London: Anthem Press, 2002.

Easterly, William. The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2001.

Data for a wide variety of countries are available from the Penn World Tables, available on the web at http://datacentre2.chass.utoronto.ca/pwt/ or http://www.bized.ac.uk/dataserv/pennhome.htm.

Here are ten questions to pose of each paper. The answers can be scored on, say, a five-point scale. The addition of these scores will yield an overall score on a base of 50. If you prefer, a narrower or wider score could be used for each question; the aim is to record information without forcing paper graders into meaningless discriminations. My hope is that almost all papers will score high in the first five questions; the discrimination between papers will come in questions 6 through 10.

1. Does the paper look like a proper paper (Title, 20 pp., bibliography, etc.)?
2. Is it in English (as opposed to literal translation of foreign phrases)?
3. Does the paper have a beginning, middle and an end?
4. Does the paper use the Solow model reasonably (not necessarily totally correctly)?
5. Does the paper use other growth theory reasonably (not necessarily totally correctly)?
6. Are there relevant quantitative data in the paper?
7. Is there a clear comparison between two countries?
8. Do the details in the paper advance the argument (as opposed to filling space)?
9. Does the argument flow and/or cumulate as the paper continues?
10. Is the paper persuasive?