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决策分析一 ─ Kendall 螃蟹与龙虾 案例
Decision Analysis I - Kendall Crab and Lobster Case |
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阅读教科书第一章；准备Kendall 螃蟹与龙虾案例（在课本第一章的最后），而且准备在课堂上讨论下列的问题： Jeff Daniel 所面对的选择为何？ 在这个案例中不确定性的来源为何？ 各种可能结果的后果为何？你会建议 Jeff Daniel 进行哪些行动？
Read Chapter 1 of the text. Prepare the Kendall Crab and Lobster Case (at the end of Chapter 1), and be ready to discuss the following questions in class: What are the choices that Jeff Daniels faces? What are the sources of uncertainty in the case? What are the consequences of the various possible outcomes? What course of action would you recommend for Jeff Daniels? |
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决策分析二 ─ 制图公司案例
Decision Analysis II - Graphic Corporation Case |
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阅读教科书第二章 2.1 到2.3 部份；阅读并分析决策分析二 ─ 制图公司案例（在第二章的最后）；除了为 Dana Meseroll 发展一项策略，你应该也要运用手中你认为是在问题中最不可靠的资料进行敏感性分析。分析并且缴交你的案例分析（包括敏感性分析内容）
Read Sections 2.1 through 2.3 of Chapter 2 of the text. Read and analyze the Graphic Corporation Case (at the end of Chapter 2). In addition to developing a strategy for Dana Meseroll, you should also perform a sensitivity analysis on the piece of data that you think is the most unreliable in the problem. ANALYZE AND HAND IN YOUR ANALYSIS OF THE CASE (including sensitivity analysis). |
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离散型概率分布
Discrete Probability Distributions |
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接下来三堂课将介绍奠定概率基础的基本功。我们会看到资料如何表现随机变数观测值的特征，并且研读三种重要的概率分布：均匀概率分布，二项分布与正态分布。阅读第二章2.4 到 2.11 和 2.13 的部份
The next three classes lay the basic groundwork of probability. We will see how data can be characterized as observed values of random variables and study three important probability distributions: the uniform distribution, the binomial distribution, and Normal distribution. Read Sections 2.4-2.11 and 2.13 of Chapter 2. |
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连续概率分布
Continuous Probability Distributions |
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阅读第三章 3.1 到 3.3 的部份
Read Sections 3.1-3.3 of Chapter 3. |
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正态分布
The Normal Probability Distribution |
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作业缴交期限（第一次作业）。阅读第三章 3.4到3.8 的部份
HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT DUE (Assignment #1). Read Sections 3.4-3.8 of Chapter 3. |
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模拟一 ─ Gentle Lentil 案例
Simulation I -- The Gentle Lentil Case |
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阅读第四章 4.1 到4.2 的部份和第五章全部。阅读Gentle Lentil 的案例（在第五章的最后）并且准备回答案例后面的问题（注意：你并不需要建构一个模拟的模型）。决定你要如何去分析 Sanjay Thomas面对的两种职业的薪资关系。
Read Sections 4.1 and 4.2 of Chapter 4, and all of Chapter 5. Read the Gentle Lentil Restaurant Case (at the end of Chapter 5) and prepare answers to the questions at the end of the case. (Note: you are NOT required to build a simulation model.) Decide how you would go about analyzing the salary implications of the two career decisions that Sanjay Thomas faces. |
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统计抽样
Statistical Sampling |
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再次阅读第四章 4.1 到4.2的部份，并且阅读4.3和2.7 的部份。
Re-read Sections 4.1-4.2 of Chapter 4, and read Sections 4.3 and 4.7 of Chapter 4.
作业缴交期限（第二次作业）。
HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT DUE (Assignment #2).
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模拟二 ─ Ontario Gateway 案例
Simulation II -- Ontario Gateway Case |
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阅读Ontario Gateway 的案例（在第五章的最后）。对 Ontario Gateway 案例进行建模分析，提交一个分析报告，在其中简述你所得出结论的理由。
Read the Ontario Gateway Case (at the end of Chapter 5). Perform the case analysis modeling assignment for the Ontario Gateway Case described at the end of the case. HAND IN a brief analysis of your conclusions with appropriate but concise back-up to support your recommendations.
HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT DUE (Assignment #3). |
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回归模式
Regression Models |
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阅读第六章 6.1 到 6.7 的部份
Read Sections 6.1 through 6.7 of Chapter 6 |
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回归诠释第一部份
Regression Illustrated I |
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阅读第四章 4.4 到4.5以及第六章6.8 到6.10 的部份
Read Sections 4.4-4.5 of Chapter 4 and Sections 6.8 through 6.10 of Chapter 6. |
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回归诠释第二部份
Regression Illustrated II |
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阅读两个回归案例：“预测 OILPLUS 的供热用油消费”和“高阶经理人奖酬”（见第六章最后）。为每个案例准备简要的分析，并到课堂上来讨论你的发现。
Read the two regression cases entitled "Predicting Heating Oil Consumption at OILPLUS" and "Executive Compensation" (at the end of Chapter 6). Perform the analyses outlined at the end of each case and come to class prepared to discuss your findings. |
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线性优化模型概述
Introduction to Linear Optimization Modeling |
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阅读第七章 7.1到7.3 的部份。我们的课程将介绍线性优化的基础，包括方程式，重要概念以及图形解方法。
Read Sections 7.1-7.3 of Chapter 7. We will cover the basics of linear optimization, including formulations, key concepts, and graphical solution methods.
案例写作提交：阅读案例 “CrogPain 的建筑部门”（见第六章的最后）。准备案例分析大纲并且交一份呈现你的发现与结论的分析报告，其中简要分析你建议的依据。
CASE WRITE-UP DUE. Read the case "The Construction Department at Croq'Pain" (at the end of Chapter 6). Perform the analyses outlined at the end of the case and hand in a memorandum presenting your findings and conclusions. Your memorandum should include appropriate but concise exhibits to support your recommendations.
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求解并分析线性优化模型
Solving and Analyzing Linear Optimization Models |
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阅读第七章 7.4到7.6 的部份。我们将介绍线性优化，基本的线性优化模型的敏感性和经济分析，以及线性优化的衍生与一般化应用优化模型。
Read Sections 7.4-7.6 of Chapter 7. We will cover computer solution methods for linear optimization, basic sensitivity and economic analysis of a linear optimization model, as well as extensions of linear optimization and applied optimization modeling in general. |
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Filatoi Riuniti 案例：生产管理
Filatoi Riuniti Case:
Production Management |
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作业缴交期限（第四次作业）。阅读并分析第七章最后的Filatoi Riuniti 的案例，并以作业的缴交格式回答案例尾端的问题，并提交作业。
HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT DUE (Assignment #4). Read and analyze the Filatoi Riuniti case at the end of Chapter 7 and answer the questions at the end of the case in the format of a homework assignment. |
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Sytech International 案例：
生产规划
Sytech International Case:
Production Planning |
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阅读第七章最后的Sytech International 案例。请准备好来到课堂上讨论这个案例。
Read the Sytech International Case at the end of Chapter 7. Come to class prepared to discuss the case. |
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非线性优化概述
Introduction to Nonlinear Optimization |
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阅读第八章 8.1到8.4 的部份。我们将在课堂上讨论非线性优化的概念
Read Sections 8.1-8.4 of Chapter 8. We will discuss the concepts of nonlinear optimization in class.
作业缴交期限（第五份作业）
HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT DUE (Assignment #5). |
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有耐力的投资者案例：组合管理
Endurance Investors Case: Portfolio Management |
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阅读第八章8.5 节 和 第八章最后的有耐力的投资者案例。分析并提交你对案例后面问题的答案。我们将在课堂上讨论这个案例。
Read Section 8.5 of Chapter 8. Read the Endurance Investors Case at the end of Chapter 8. ANALYZE AND HAND IN YOUR ANSWERS TO THE QUESTIONS FOLLOWING THE CASE. We will discuss the Endurance Investors Case in class. |
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离散型优化概述
Introduction to Discrete Optimization |
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阅读第九章 9.1到9.4 的部份。我们将在课堂上讨论离散型优化的概念。
Read Sections 9.1-9.4 of Chapter 9. We will discuss the concepts of discrete optimization in class. |
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国际产业案例：策略投资管理
International Industries Case: Strategic Investment Management |
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阅读但不需交第九章最后的“International Industries, Inc.”案例。我们将在课堂上讨论这个案例。
Read but do not hand in the case "International Industries, Inc.'' at the end of Chapter 9. We will discuss the International Industries Case in class. |
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摘要与未来展望
Summary and Look-Ahead |
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在本课程最后的一个部份，我们将展示一些延伸本课程中建构的概念与模式化工具的内容。我们也会讨论任何在史隆管理学院或其他校园中可能的后续课程内容。最后但最重要的，我们将保留部份的时间提供如何准备期末考的指引。
In this last class session, we will present some extensions of the concepts and modeling tools developed in the course. We will also discuss possible follow-on classes at Sloan and elsewhere on campus. Last but not least, we will reserve part of this session to provide guidance as you prepare for the Final Examination. |
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期末考
Final Exam |
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为时三个小时的期末考将包含本课程全部的内容。考试将是闭卷考试、不允许携带小抄。你可以携带一台计算器参加考试。在考试前你还可以拿到在课程网页上公布的三张草稿纸。我们将会在期末考前的周末，举行一个三个小时的期末考复习，详情请参阅课程网页。
The 3-hour final exam will cover the entire content of the course. The exam will be closed-book with no notes allowed. You may bring a calculator with you to the exam. You will also be given 3 pages of formulas that will be posted on the course website before the exam. There will be a 3-hour final exam review on the weekend before the exam, see the course website for details. |
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