经济管理的基本工具
Basic Tools of Economic Management |
| 1 |
导论
Overview |
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| 2 |
1923年的德国过度通货膨胀
The German Hyperinflation of 1923
当德国于第一次世界大战战败，威廉二世把政权交给民主的威玛共合国。第一篇文章(Johj Rodes着)描写了德国的政治情势以及同盟国要求的战败国赔偿。第二、三、及第四篇文章(Stopler, Ringer, and Bresciani-Turroni着)描写了过度通膨的问题，而第五篇文章描述其央行总裁对于德国央行决策的解释。最后一篇文章则是Stopler对于1923年11月的稳定的解释。大部分的相关资料都可以从最后的附录找到。
As Germany lost World War I, the empire of William II gave way to the democratic Weimar Republic. The first reading (by Johj Rodes) describes the political situation in Germany and the reparations demanded by Allies. The second, third, and fourth readings (by Stopler, Ringer, and Bresciani-Turroni) describe the hyperinflation, while the fifth reading gives central bank president's explanation for the Bundesbank's actions. The final reading gives Stopler's description of the stabilization of November 1923. Much of the information about the episode can be found in the exhibits at the end. |
德国的过度通膨是怎么引起的?
What caused the German Hyperinflation?
德国过度通膨的结果?
What were the consequences of the German Hyperinflation?
你会怎么建议德国政府降低1923年11月的通膨?
How would you advise the German government to reduce the country's inflation in November 1923? |
| 3 |
大萧条: 原因及冲击
The Great Depression: Causes and Impact
本堂课的目标是要了解当经济体处于衰退时，是什么原因造成的以及如何做才能走出衰退。这个案例讨论了最严重的衰退: 与通缩相关的衰退
Our objective in this session is to understand when an economy is in a recession, why it is, and what to do to get it out of it. This case discusses one of the most difficult recessions we know: those that are associated with deflation.
财政乘数-幼儿照顾互助会的秘诀
Fiscal Multiplier - The mystery of the babysitting cooperative
(英文PDF)、
(英文DOC)
通货紧缩的恶性循环-大萧条
The Disinflation Spiral - The great depression
(英文PDF)、
(英文DOC)
|
大萧条是怎么引起的，做错了什么事，如何走出衰退?
What were the causes of the Great Depression, what were the mistakes, how did they get out of it?
今天美国该怎么做(走出衰退)?
What would you do, today, in the U.S. (to get out of the recession)? |
| 4 |
ISLM
ISLM模型的摘要(Mundell-Fleming模型)
Simple notes on the ISLM model (the Mundell-Fleming model)
(英文PDF)、
(英文DOC)
雷根的计划
The Reagan Plan
1981年，隆纳. 雷根刚上任即面对一连串难以解决的问题。这个案例让我们得以分析雷根的计划，特别是他的政策衡量底下的假设。
In 1981, Ronald Reagan is a new President confronted with a set of problems that seem intractable. The case allows for an analysis of Reagan's program, and especially the assumptions that underlie his policy measures. |
财政及货币政策如何运作?
How does fiscal and monetary policy work?
评估1981年雷根面临的情况
Evaluate the situation facing Reagan in 1981.
理论上雷根的计划应该会发挥什么效用?
How was Reagan's strategy supposed to work in theory?
它有描述引起美国经济问题的原因吗?
Does it address the causes of the U.S. economic problems?
总统在他的演讲中有哪些假设(经济、社会、政治和国际)? 这些假设是有根据的吗?
What assumptions (economic, social, political and international) did the President make in his speech? Are they valid? |
发展策略
Development Strategies |
| 5 |
日本
Japan
50年来，日本在世界上的经济表现相当令人印象深刻，这个个案描写了日本如何达到这样的高成长。
For more than 50 years, Japan had one of the most impressive performances in the world. This case describes hoe Japan achieved the high rates of growth. |
日本采取了什么样的策略?
What was the strategy Japan followed?
什么造成他们的失败?
What failed them?
在今天是可行的吗?
Is it feasible today? |
| 6 |
新加坡
Singapore
25年来，新加坡达到了空前的实际经济成长。然而，在1990年代初期，因为新的竞争压力、社会延革、和新的领袖，这个岛国先前的策略收益明显的减少。
For more than 25 years, Singapore has achieved virtually unprecedented levels of real economic growth. In the early 1990's, however, the island nation is faced with apparent diminishing returns to its previous strategy, with new competitive pressures, with changing social issues, and new leadership. |
你如何解释新加坡从1965年来的表现? 为什么其国民所得成长比大部分发展中国家都要快?
How do you explain Singapore's performance since 1965? Why has GNP growth been faster than most developing countries?
投资与储蓄在新加坡的发展中扮演了扮演了什么角色?
What is the role of saving and investment is Singapore's development?
生产力成长是怎么达到的? 而生产力成长对经济又有什么贡献?
How has productivity growth been attained and how has it contributed to the economy?
1992年8月，新加坡政府应该改变他的政策吗?
In August 1992, should the Singaporean government be changing its strategy?
东南亚金融危机是可以预期的吗?
Was the SEA crises predictable? |
| 7 |
智利: 拉丁美洲之虎
Chile: The Latin American Tiger?
智利很明显的处在在不对的大陆了，但是他20年前并非处于现在的情况。让智利如此卓越的成长的源头是什么?
Chile is clearly in the wrong continent. But it wasn't like the current situation 20 years ago. What are the sources of Chile's incredible performance? |
智利的成长政策是什么?
What is Chile's strategy for growth?
为什么停止了?
Why it has stopped?
智利下一步可以怎么做?
What can Chile do next?
和美国的自由贸易协定对智利有帮助吗?
Would a free trade agreement with the U.S. help? |
新兴市场的金融风暴
Emerging Market Crises |
| 8 |
1994-1995墨西哥披索金融风暴
The 1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis
1980年代晚期de la Madrid和Salinas的政策被当作是稳定及改革的典范，然而，在Salina的任期最后，Rudiger Dornbusch告诉墨西哥政府披索需要贬值。而1994年的贬值结果就是一场混乱。
By the late 1980's the policies of de la Madrid and Salinas were widely regarded as showcases of stabilization and reform. However, by the end of Salinas' term, Rudiger Dornbusch tells the Mexican government that the Peso must be devalued. A devaluation at the end of 1994 results in chaos. |
1994年披索被高估了吗? 为什么或为什么不?
Is the peso overvalued in 1994? Why or why not?
是什么引起1995年的汇率风暴?
What caused the exchange rate crisis of 1995?
在风暴的时候，美国借钱给墨西哥是对的吗?
Was the United States right in lending to Mexico during the crisis? |
| 9 |
阿根廷梅廉及其民粹风格
Menem and the Populist Tradition in Argentina
阿根廷不要为我哭泣
披索真的很差，失业率、财政问题、总统的失败、现在我们已经沉沦
(你可以听到背景音乐吗?)
Don't cry for me Argentina.
The peso... really sucks.
The unemployment,
the fiscal problems
Presidents failing
Now we've submerging.
(Can you hear the music on the background?) |
是什么引起阿根廷的问题?
What caused the Argentinean problems?
可以做些什么?
What can be done?
货币发行局是一个好的选择吗?
Was the currency board a good option?
美元化怎么样?
What about dollarization?
宣示成为美国的属地怎么样?
What about declaring yourself a colony of U.S.? |
| 10 |
BBNN模型的摘路及评论
BBNN Notes and Review
BBNN模型
The BBNN model
(英文PDF)、
(英文DOC)
|
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| 11 |
亚洲金融风暴
The Asian Crises
1997年终，亚洲老虎是否明显的做错了? 早在风暴之前，许多经济学家就已经预期到了，但是时间上是否都错了? 许多预言在事后印证是智言，但是很少被真正了解。
By the end of 1997, it was clear that the Asians tigers did something wrong, or not? Well before the crises several economists predicted them, but their timing was clearly wrong, or not? A lot has been said using the obvious wisdom after fact, but really little has been fully understood. |
金融风暴的起因?What were the reasons behind the financial crises?
自我验证或是基本面?
Self-fulfilling or Fundamentals?
可以从这些事件上学到什么?
What can be learned from them? |
金融风暴及其蔓延
Financial Crises and Contagion |
| 12 |
马来西亚
Malaysia
1998年马来西亚做了金融市场成员劝他们不要做的事，但是他们存活下来了, 为什么?
Malaysia in 1998 did exactly what every member of the financial markets was advising them NOT to do. They survived, how? |
资本控制的成本和利益在哪?
What are the cost and benefits of capital controls?
什么时候运用?
When should they be used?
国际货币基金组织IMF和世界银行WB的角色是什么?
What is the role of the IMF and the WB?
马来西亚的政策怎么样呢? 这些政策是真的不好或只是宣传的不好?
What about their policies? Are they really bad or it is just bad publicity? |
| 13 |
期中考
Midterm Exam |
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转型中的经济体及非洲
Transition Economies and Africa |
| 14 |
俄罗斯 1994年
Russia - 1994
1993年12月12日，俄罗斯人民投下了俄罗斯史上的第一次多政党选举。这场选举是针对叶尔辛的改革政策的公民投票，并通过叶尔辛的新宪法，然而，国会选举的多数选民并不支持经济自由化的提倡，反而选择了较偏激的政党和共产党。叶尔辛选择的是对的经济和政治改革吗? 如果以不一样的顺序实施这些政策，是否将可能更有效的转型为市场经济?
On December 12, 1993, the Russian people cast their votes in the first open multiparty election in Russian history. The election was a referendum on Yeltsin's reform strategy. Voters approved Yeltsin's new constitution. However, a majority of the electorate did not support advocates of economic liberalization in the parliamentary elections, choosing instead fringe parties and Communists. Had Yeltsin chosen the right economic and political reforms? Would implementing these policies in a different sequence have allowed for a more effective transition to a market economy? |
戈巴契夫是怎么失势的?
Why did Gorbachev lose power?
1994年1月叶尔辛的改革政策出了什么事? 为什么?
What happened to Yeltsin's reform strategy by January 1994? Why?
已开发国家及国际货币基金组织应该在俄罗斯的经济改革中扮演什么样的角色?
What role should developed countries and the IMF play in Russian economic reform?
叶尔辛的宪政改革足以确保俄罗斯未来的成长吗? 你会建议其他的方式吗?
Are Yeltsin's constitutional reforms enough to assure future Russian growth? Are there other approaches you would suggest?
债权违约之后，俄罗斯下一步该怎么做?
After the debt default, what are the next steps Russia should take?
我们可以解释俄罗斯近期在经济上的成功吗?
Can we explain the economic success Russia has had, recently? |
| 15 |
中国: 面对21世纪
China: Facing the 21st Century
不容置疑的，中国最近成为亚洲最活络的势力，或许也可说是全球最活络的势力，而且，如果中国继续顺着现在的轨道，其成长必然会改变亚洲的面貌。中国怎么办到的? 中国将往哪里前进?
China is without doubt currently the most dynamic force in Asia; it may be the most dynamic force in the world. Moreover, if China continues along its present trajectory, its growth will inevitably change the face of Asia. How did China do this? Where is China heading? |
中国发生什么事? 中国怎么办到的?
What is happening in China? How did China do this?
1993年朱镕基面临了什么问题? 他有什么选择?
What are the problems facing Zhu in 1993? What are his options?
中国的成长对其他亚洲国家有什么冲击?
What is the impact of China's growth on other Asian countries?
下一步怎么做? 他们的问题是什么?
What is the next step? What are their problems? |
| 16 |
乌干达与华盛顿共识
Uganda and the Washington Consensus
乌干达是非洲最活跃的国家之一，这是由于前10年重要的结构及市场改革。然而，今天外债的严重问题及疲弱的国内社会指标威胁着持续改革的过程。可以做什么?已施行的政策出了什么差错，忽略了某些方面吗?如果是这样，那些错误是什么?
Uganda is one of the most dynamic countries in Africa. This has been the result of important structural and market oriented reforms during the last decade. Today, however, important problems of external debt, as well as weak domestic social indicators, threaten the continuation of the process of reform. What can be done? Were there mistakes in the policies implemented that left some aspects behind? If so, what were those mistakes? |
你对当今情势的诊断是什么?
What is your diagnostic of the current situation?
他们怎么办到的?
How did they get there?
这个经济体面临了什么挑战?
What are the challenges the economy is facing?
你会怎么做?
What would you do?
从这三个案例中，我们看到了不同路线的改革，如果你可以重来，你改革的顺序会是怎么样?
In these three cases we saw different paths of reform, what would be your sequence of reforms if you have to start all over again? |
贸易议题
Trade Issues |
| 17 |
波音公司跟空中巴士
Boeing Versus Airbus
传统的经济学理论建议自由贸易是最好的策略，然而，大部分的国家都有保护政策。这个个案对于引导学生到贸易争议的议题是个相当重要的个案: 飞行器产业
Classical economic theory suggests that free trade is the best strategy. However, most countries use protection. This case introduces the students to the issues on trade disputes by looking at a very important case: the aircraft industry. |
国内政策的角色是什么? 它如何与贸易相互作用?
What is the role of domestic policy and how it interacts with trade?
这能合理化解释为什么国家要如此保护?
Does this rationalize why countries protect so much? |
| 18 |
全球化的争论
The Debate on Globalization
你最近有看过示威运动吗?不管是人们抱怨红袜队或是跟这有关的议题。
Have you seen a demonstration lately? Probably it was either people complaining about the Red Sox or it was related to this topic.
标题通常是:
贫穷的国家被恶势力的跨国公司剥削
贫穷的国家被恶势力的国际货币基金和世界银行剥削
贫穷的国家被恶势力的环保论者剥削
The argument always reads as:
Poor countries are exploited by the powerful-evil-driven multinationals.
Poor countries are exploited by the powerful-evil-driven IMF and WB.
Poor countries are exploited by the powerful-evil-driven environmentalists.
Rich countries are too.
富有的国家太有竞争优势-Ricardian模型
Comparative Advantages - Ricardian Model
(英文PDF)、
(英文DOC)
|
美国本土劳工因外国廉价劳工而受伤害吗?
Are the workers in U.S. hurt by foreign cheap labor?
为什么会变成这样?
Why is this the case?
我们应该做些什么吗?
Should we do something about it? |
已发展的经济体的挑战
Challenges of the Developed Economies |
| 19 |
法国的失业率
Unemployment in France
虽然在1975年以前法国的失业率很低，自从1985之后法国的失业率就非常高。法国政府对于这样高失业率的反应普遍被当成主要议题。
Whereas unemployment in France was very low before 1975, it has been extremely high since 1985. The government's response to this high level of unemployment is widely regarded as the principle issue. |
为什么法国双位数的失业率是个重大的问题?
Why is double-digit unemployment of such great concern in France?
引起法国失业率的主要原因是什么?
What are the primary causes of French unemployment?
Chirac解决这问题的最好选择是什么?
What are Chirac's best options for dealing with the problem?
欧洲的前景怎么样?
What are the prospects in Europe? |
| 20 |
欧洲货币联盟
European Monetary Union
现在我们只有一个货币，但是诚实的说，它的表现并不如预期。欧元并不像有些人所预期的那么棒。
Now we have a single currency. But to be honest, it hasn't performed as expected. The Euro is no near the fantastic currency some have predicted. |
欧元还有任何希望吗?
Does the Euro have any hope at all?
加入这个联盟是个错误吗?
Was it a mistake to join?
纳入义大利是个错误吗? 或许这是货币表现不好的原因(还是应该怪罪于荷兰)?
Was it a mistake to accept the Italians, maybe that's why the currency is not performing (or are the Netherlands the ones to be blamed)? |
| 21 |
社会安全改革
Social Security Reform
这个个案呈现了社会安全未来会面临的挑战
This case presents the challenges that social security will face in the future. |
这个问题的来源是什么?
What is the source of the problem?
可以做些什么?
What can be done?
已发展的经济体的前景怎么样?
What are the prospects of developed economies? |
| 22 |
日本: 自由、公平且全球化?
Japan: Free, Fair and Global?
1980年代的日本跟我们学到的”发展中的国家”大不相同。新的日本是个富有的国家，拥有空前的经常帐盈余，以及很高的每人国民所得，然而，国民所得成长率下滑且某些观察着觉得日本所采用的经济策略已经不再适用。
The Japan of the 1980's differs dramatically from the "developmental state" that we have studied. The new Japan is a rich country with unprecedented current account surpluses, and a very high level of GDP per capita. However, GDP growth rates have declined and some observers feel that the economic strategy used by Japan is no longer appropriate. |
日本1990年代的问题是周期性的还是结构性的? 这是永远的还是只是昙花一现?
Are Japan's problems in the 1990's cyclical or structural? Is this permanent or transitory?
如果是周期性的，为什么低产出持续了这么久?
If they are cyclical, why does output stay so low for so long?
日本应该怎么全然去改变政府在它这经济体中扮演的角色?
How, if at all, should Japan change the role of government in its economy?
货币及财政政策在这情况下扮演什么角色?
What is the role of monetary and fiscal policies in this context?
日本方面，我们应该怎么做?
What can we do with Japan?
日本是否试着一天比一天变成更像一个新兴市场?
Is Japan trying to become more like an emerging market everyday? |
| 23 |
国际金融结构
International Financial Architecture |
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| 24 |
美国
The United States
美国的未来是什么? 我们将会走出衰退吗? 你将能够找到工作(并且偿还你的负债)吗?
What is the future for the US? Are we going to get out of the recession? Will you be able to find employment (and pay your debts)? |
25年后世界会是什么样子?
How will the world look 25 years from now?
美国的角色是什么?
What is the role of the U.S.?
当中国变得跟美国一样大(或是至少比日本大)的时候，会发生什么事?
What will happen when China becomes as big as the U.S. (or at least bigger than Japan)? |
