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本课程(14.731)之学期报告为麻省理工学院经济学研究生的第一份研究报告。学生必须自课程大纲、课堂讨论或自身经验中择一主题,并建立可验证的假说(例如,一份针对课程大纲撰写的报告能否扩充延展或以新验证方式加以验证)。学生自行搜集资料并行验证,计量经济学可为辅助工具但非必备。相关阅读资料列表中,包含许多引用非量化的质性资料(qualitative data)、无法以计量经济学方法解释的论文可资比对。 The term paper for 14.731 is the first research paper in the graduate program in Economics at MIT. Students are asked to choose a topic from the syllabus, class discussion, or their own experience. They then formulate a testable hypothesis, for example, whether a paper on the syllabus can be extended or tested by a new test. The students collect data and perform the tests indicated. Econometrics can be used, but is not required. The readings section contains many papers for comparison that use qualitative data not susceptible to econometric treatment.
上哪找资料? What Data Sources are Available?
本报告不一定非引用量化(quantitative)资讯不可,亦可引用质性资讯。然而,有些学生可能会想要取得原始个体资料,进行统计分析。因此,所有学生都有必要了解有哪些出版资源,以及资源之所在。请继续往下读。 The paper does not require the use of quantitative information. You may want to use qualitative information. However, some of you may want to do a statistical analysis using micro data. All of you will need to know which published sources are available and where. Therefore read on.
请注意,美国的第一手资源最容易搜集,英国的也为数不少,法国的就少了点。其他国家的第一手资料在搜集上的难度则高得多。在选定报告主题时,请谨记前述原则。如果因为找不到更早期的资料,而将内容局限于1970年以后的时期,这样的报告通常得不到太出色的成绩。 Note that finding primary sources is easiest for the United States. You can find a fair number of primary sources for Britain and somewhat fewer for France. Other countries present even greater difficulties. Keep this in mind in thinking about topics. Students who end up focusing on the 1970s onwards because they cannot find earlier data tend not to do well on the paper.
机器可读资料 Machine Readable Data
美国以外的资料未必都能查到,美国的资料则以19世纪以后为主。 Hardly any non-US data are available. Most of the US data date from the end of the nineteenth century onwards.
多数开放性资料存于“校际政治与社会研究方法联合会(ICPSR)”,可参照网址Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research Most publicly available data are stored with ICPSR. To browse their collection, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research.
ICPSR可查得之资料如下: Available ICPSR data:
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公开发布的普查资料 Published census material.
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美国劳工统计局的消费者支出调查、以及各州劳工统计局调查(19世纪末、20世纪初) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer expenditure surveys, as well as state Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys (end of nineteenth century, beginning of twentieth).
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美国制造业普查(19世纪) U.S. census of manufacturing (nineteenth century).
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选举资料 Voting data.
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贩奴、价格与评价 Slave sales, prices, and appraisals.
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军队官兵名册 Military muster rolls.
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立遗嘱、遗嘱验证与税务记录(含英国) Wills, probate, and tax records (including English).
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特定企业(如福特)之薪资名录 Payroll records of selected companies (e.g. Ford).
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英国与法国之拘捕、罢工与暴力活动 Arrests, strikes, and violent activity in France and Britain.
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欧洲的集合统计 Aggregate statistics for Europe.
他国也有类似ICPSR的资料档案,如“欧洲社会科学资料档案协会”。“历史资料服务”为Essex大学档案资料库的一部份,所搜集的史料极为丰富。 Data archives similar to ICPSR exist in other countries as well. See the Council of European Social Science Data Archives. The History Data Service, part of the Archives at the University of Essex has a particularly rich collection of historical data.
其他资料: Other data:
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原始个别普查资料(1850, 1860, 1870, 1880, 1900-1920, 1940-2000)可于明尼苏达大学的明尼苏达人口中心查得。由“北大西洋人口计划”亦可查到1880年全年的美国普查与1881年的加拿大普查资料。 Census micro data (1850, 1860, 1870, 1880, 1900-1920, 1940-2000) are available from Minnesotta Population Center, University of Minessota. The entire 1880 US and 1881 Canadian censuses are also available from North Atlantic Population Project.
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经济历史服务可直接下载或与作者联络,收录含欧洲在内的资料,范围涵盖时序资料与美国劳动者调查等各类原始个别资料 Economic History Services, directly downloadable or an author contact - collection includes Europe and ranges from time series data to various micro datasets such as US surveys of workers.
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普林斯顿大学Adriana Lleras-Muney所收录,关于美国学童强迫入学法案、劳工法案与各州特性 Adriana Lleras-Muney's (Princeton University) compulsory US child attendance and labor laws and state charactistics.
直接与其他个人或单位联系,亦可取得其他资料。 Other data can be obtained by directly contacting individuals.
对于撰写报告内容为十九世纪及其后者,上述清单将非常有用。 This list will mainly be useful if you are working on the nineteenth century century or later.
由各图书馆网页上,亦可查得旧报纸资料库,如ProQuest的纽约时报与华尔街日报的旧资料档案。 Historical newspaper databases include Proquest's New York Times Historical Archives and Historical Wall Street Journal and are accessible from the libraries web page.
别忘了,麻省理工学院图书馆的回顾收藏室(RSC)也保存了昔日的资料,包括已出版的普查清册。原始资料来源还有哈佛大学的Widener、Littauer(联邦政府与州政府报告)、Lamont(普查清册)、Guttman(教育相关合集)与Baker(商业史)等图书馆。Littauer图书馆的馆藏大多未列于网络目录中,而波士顿公共图书馆则收藏麻萨诸塞州的报告。 Note that MIT keeps older material, including published census volumes, in its Retrospective Collection (RSC). Primary sources are also available at Harvard's Widener, Littauer (federal and state government reports), Lamont (census volumes), Guttman (education volumes), and Baker (business history) libraries. Most Littauer volumes will not show up on the online catalogue. The Boston Public Library contains Massachusetts state reports.
学生须能将下列三书目应用自如: Three volumes that you should be familiar with are:
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美国人口普查局,《美国历史统计:自殖民时期至1970年》;美国商务部、美国人口普查局、美国政府印制局(华盛顿)出版,1975年。 U.S. Bureau of the Census. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970. Washington: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1975.
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Mitchell, B. R.,《英国历史统计》;剑桥大学出版社(剑桥)出版,1988年。ISBN: 0521330084。 Mitchell, B. R. British Historical Statistics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988. ISBN: 0521330084.
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Mitchell, B. R.,《欧洲历史统计》;麦克米兰(伦敦)出版,1975年。ISBN:0333120582。 Mitchell, B. R. European Historical Statistics. London: Macmillan, 1975. ISBN: 0333120582.
其他可能对学生有帮助的资料来源: Other sources you might find useful are:
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美国联邦准备局,《银行与货币统计》;美国联邦准备局(华盛顿特区)出版,1943年。 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Banking and Monetary Statistics. Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1943.
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Forrest Capie与Michael Collins,《两次大战之间的英国经济:统计摘要》; 曼彻斯特大学出版社(新罕布夏州多佛市)出版,1983年。ISBN: 0719009014。 Capie, Forrest and Michael Collins. The Inter-war British Economy: A Statistical Abstract. Dover, NH: Manchester University Press, 1983. ISBN: 0719009014.
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F. Capie与A. Weber,《英国货币史第一册(1870-1982年):数据、资料来源与方法》;Allen & Unwin出版社(波士顿)出版,1985年。ISBN: 004332097X。 Capie, F. and A. Weber. A Monetary History of the United Kingdom, 1870-1982, Volume 1, Data, Sources, and Methods. Boston: Allen & Unwin, 1985. ISBN: 004332097X.
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C. Feinstein,《英国国民所得、支出与出口(1855-1965年)》;剑桥大学出版社(剑桥)出版,1972年。ISBN: 0521072301。 Feinstein, C. National Income, Expenditure, and Output of the United Kingdom. 1855-1965. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1972. ISBN: 0521072301.
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M. Friedman与A. Schwartz,《美国与英国的货币趋势》;芝加哥大学出版社(芝加哥)出版,1982年。ISBN: 0226264092。 Friedman, M. and A. Schwartz. Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982. ISBN: 0226264092.
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Raymond W. Goldsmith,《20国之全国资产负债比较表(1688-1978年)》;芝加哥大学出版社(芝加哥)出版,1985年。ISBN: 0226301532。 Goldsmith, Raymond W. Comparative National Balance Sheets: A Study of Twenty Countries, 1688-1978. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985. ISBN: 0226301532.
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S. S. Kuznets(1966),《美国经济中的资金形成与募集》;普林斯顿大学出版社(新泽西州普林斯顿市)出版,1961年。 Kuznets, S. S. 1966. Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1961.
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美国哲学学会,《1870-1950年美国人口再分布与经济成长:方法研究与对照表》;The Society(费城)出版,1957年。 American Philosophical Society. Population Redistribution and Economic Growth, United States, 1870-1950: Methodological Considerations and Reference Tables. Philadelphia: The Society, 1957.
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Maurice Levy-Leboyer与Franois Bourguinon(1985),《19世纪的法国经济:宏观经济分析》; Economica(法国巴黎)出版,1985年。(有英译本) Levy-Leboyer, Maurice et Bourguinon, Franois. 1985. L'économie française au XIXe siècle. Analyse macro-économique. Paris: Economica, 1985. (also available in English).
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O. Marchand与C. Thelot(1991),《1800-2000年间的法国劳工》;Nathan(法国巴黎)出版,1997年。ISBN: 209190435X。 Marchand O. et C. Thelot. 1991. Deux Siècles de travail en France, 1800-2000. Paris: Nathan, 1997. ISBN: 209190435X.
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R. C. O. Matthews、C. H. Feinstein与J. C. Odling-Smee,《英国经济成长(1856-1973年)》;史丹佛大学出版社(美国加州史丹佛)出版,1982年。ISBN: 0804711100。 Matthews, R. C. O., C. H. Feinstein, and J. C. Odling-Smee. British Economic Growth, 1856-1973. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1982. ISBN: 0804711100.
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M. C. Urquhart与K. A. H. Buckley,《加拿大之历史统计资料》;剑桥大学出版社(剑桥)出版,1965年。 Urquhart, M. C. and K. A. H. Buckley. The Historical Statistics of Canada. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1965.
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Clinton Collver,《工业安全》;穆迪投资服务公司(纽约市)出版,1919年。 Collver, Clinton. Industrial Securities. New York: Moody's Investers Service, 1919.
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所得与资产研究联会,《19世纪美国经济趋势》;普林斯顿大学出版社(新泽西州普林斯顿市)出版,1960年。 Conference on Research in Income and Wealth. Trends in the American Economy in the Nineteenth Century. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1960.
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法国劳工局、商业、邮政及电信产业部,《工业法国的劳工薪资与工时》;Imprimerie nationale (法国巴黎)出版,1893-1897年。(全四册) Office du Travail. Ministere du Commèrce, de l'Industrie des Postes et des Telegraphes. Salaires et duree du travail dans l'industrie française. Paris: Imprimerie nationale, 1893-97. (4 volumes)
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人口普查与统计年报 Censuses of population and statistical yearbooks.
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政府机构之各类报告 Assorted reports from government agencies.
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任何得自私藏之丛书,如铁路运费费率及蒙哥马利.华德公司的商品型录等。 Price series that can be obtained from private sources such as railroad freight rates and Montgomery Ward's catalogues.
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